DOGE Cuts Unleashed a Deadly Wave of Violence Across Africa, Study Finds

A new study confirms that the sudden shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2025 directly contributed to a significant increase in violent conflicts across Africa, highlighting the severe consequences of the aid cuts for regional stability and security.

The study, published in Science, analyzed geolocated data on aid disbursements and violent events, revealing that regions heavily reliant on US aid experienced a 6.5% higher probability of conflict following the agency’s closure. Conflict events such as protests, riots, and battles increased notably, with conflict-related fatalities rising by approximately 9.3%. Researchers estimate that the aid cuts contributed to a 12.3% rise in conflict events in affected areas, with effects persisting over several months.

The research indicates that the aid shutdown led to a destabilization effect, as communities lost critical resources that previously mitigated violence. The abrupt loss of aid also created economic shocks, making violence more attractive as a means of resource control. The study utilized datasets from GODAD and ACLED to establish these correlations, confirming that the increase in violence was directly linked to the aid withdrawal, not preexisting trends.

Why It Matters

This development underscores the profound impact of foreign aid on conflict dynamics in Africa. The findings suggest that abrupt aid reductions can exacerbate violence, undermine development efforts, and threaten regional stability. For the United States, the aid cuts have also compromised strategic interests, as increased violence can lead to broader security risks, including the spread of instability and the resurgence of armed groups.

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Background

USAID, established in 1961, has historically been a major component of US foreign policy, providing humanitarian and developmental aid across Africa. Under the Trump administration, the agency was rapidly dismantled in 2025, with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency overseeing the process. The shutdown followed a broader trend of aid cuts, which prior to the study had already been linked to increased preventable deaths and health crises. The effects of these cuts are now being seen in rising conflict levels, reversing years of progress in stability and development.

“With the USAID shutdown, there was a rapid increase in the likelihood, severity, and lethality of violence across nearly one thousand subnational units in Africa.”

— Austin L. Wright, study co-author

“It’s a bit of a ticking time bomb—removing the conflict-reducing aid while leaving behind the conflict-enhancing factors creates a dangerous situation.”

— Wright

What Remains Unclear

While the study establishes a strong correlation between aid cuts and increased violence, it is still unclear how long these effects will persist or whether similar patterns will emerge in other regions. The full impact on long-term stability and security remains to be seen, and ongoing political developments could influence future trends.

What’s Next

Researchers plan to monitor conflict trends over the coming months to assess whether violence levels stabilize or continue to rise. Policy discussions are expected to focus on restoring aid programs or developing alternative strategies to mitigate instability. Additionally, the US government and international partners may reevaluate aid policies to prevent similar outcomes in the future.

Key Questions

How exactly did the aid cuts lead to increased violence?

The study suggests that the abrupt loss of aid resources destabilized communities, removing conflict mitigation mechanisms and increasing incentives for violence over resource control.

Which regions in Africa were most affected?

Regions that received the highest levels of US aid prior to the shutdown experienced the most significant increases in violence, particularly areas with weaker governance and less local control.

What are the long-term implications of these findings?

The increase in violence could lead to prolonged instability, higher death tolls, and broader security risks that may affect US interests and regional development for years to come.