🔍 Read the full analysis: Growth Without Jobs? The US Makes 10% More With Almost The Same Hours. What The Data Says About AI, And What It Doesn’t on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
U.S. business-sector output rose 10.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked increased 0.9%, according to calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics indexes cited by ThorstenMeyerAI.com. Productivity has strengthened, but the figures do not establish that AI caused the change or explain why hiring and pay have been uneven.
U.S. business output rose 10.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked increased just 0.9%, according to calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics indexes cited in a November 1 report by ThorstenMeyerAI.com. The figures point to faster productivity growth, but they do not show that artificial intelligence caused it, even as the economy expanded and hiring remained modest.
The report draws on official figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Census Bureau. In the nonfarm business sector, output grew 2.5% over the year to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked rose 0.2%. The BLS reported productivity growth of 2.2% over that period. These figures cover private businesses other than farms, not the entire economy.
The wider economy also grew: the BEA’s advance estimate put real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% in the second. That is a quarterly growth rate expressed at an annual pace; it is not the same measure or time window as the report’s comparison of output and hours since late 2022.
Job growth has been concentrated unevenly. The report says payrolls increased by 496,000 in the 12 months to September; health care and social assistance added 520,000, while information industries lost 120,000. It also cites a 52.8% labor share in the second quarter, the lowest in the reported series dating to 1947, and a 0.6% annual decline in real private-sector wages through September. Those figures describe different parts of the labor market and do not, by themselves, identify the causes.
Infographic 01 · More output, same hours
Ten percent more output, almost the same hours
The US business sector produces much more than three years ago with almost no extra work. The new jobs are mostly in health care.
The last 12 months
Nonfarm business sector, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026
- Outputreal, value added+2.5%
- Productivityoutput per hour+2.2%
- Hours workedall workers+0.2%
Where the jobs went
Payroll jobs, change over 12 months to Sep 2026 (preliminary)
Since Q4 2022: output +10.0%, hours +0.9%, productivity +9.1% (my arithmetic from the BLS indexes). Hiring rate in Aug 2026: 3.3% of jobs (2019 average 3.9%); layoff rate 1.0% (2019: 1.2%). Correlation, not proof of cause.
Sources: BLS, Productivity and Costs Q2 2026 (3 Sep 2026) · BLS, Employment Situation Sep 2026 · BLS, JOLTS Aug 2026.
Powered by Thorsten Meyer AI
Productivity Gains, Uneven Pay and Hiring
When production rises much faster than hours worked, companies can expand output without adding labor at the same pace. That can support economic growth, but the figures leave open who benefits through higher wages, new jobs or lower prices. The report’s cited falling labor share and real wages suggest that stronger output has not automatically meant a larger slice for workers.
The distribution of hiring also matters to people entering the workforce or seeking jobs in industries that are contracting. The report cites unemployment of 8.0% among people aged 20 to 24 and 7.0% among Black workers, compared with an overall rate of 4.2%. These are reported rates for different groups, not proof that productivity growth caused the gaps. Together, they show why headline economic growth can coexist with a more difficult job search for some workers.
For employers and policymakers, the central issue is whether productivity gains will last and how they will be shared. If output per hour continues to rise, businesses may be able to grow without proportional hiring. But productivity data alone cannot determine future staffing, wages or the effect of new technology.
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What the Productivity Numbers Measure
Productivity is output divided by hours worked. The BLS measure cited in the report covers the nonfarm business sector. It differs from GDP, which measures output across the broader economy, and from payroll statistics, which count jobs rather than hours or production. The measures are related, but they should not be treated as interchangeable.
The report compares recent productivity growth with earlier periods: it says productivity increased at an average annual rate of 2.1% from the end of 2019, compared with 1.5% from 2007 to 2019. It also uses the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, as a convenient date for examining the period associated with generative AI. A before-and-after comparison around that date is not a controlled test of AI’s effect.
The report notes that the Financial Times published an opinion column on October 31 asking whether the pattern offered clear evidence of AI’s impact on the labor market, and that The Wall Street Journal published a story about growth that was not reaching everyone equally. The author says he could access their headlines or summaries, not the full articles, and bases his analysis on public statistics instead.
“Numbers can show that two things happen at the same time. They rarely show that one causes the other.”
— Thorsten Meyer, ThorstenMeyerAI.com report
AI’s Role Remains Unproven
The data establish that output grew faster than hours over the stated period; they do not establish why. The report says only about one in four U.S. businesses reported using AI in an early-October Census Bureau survey. That measure does not show how extensively AI was used, how many workers’ tasks changed, or whether adoption raised output per hour.
Other explanations may also fit the pattern, including investment, changes in the mix of industries and workers, or business decisions unrelated to generative AI. The report notes that technology-sector employment began falling before generative AI was widely used in businesses. It also points to different conditions in Europe, where it says employment has grown while productivity has been flat. These comparisons do not settle the U.S. explanation.
Some figures are estimates, and the report combines statistics with different reference periods and definitions. The payroll, wage and labor-share numbers describe outcomes, but they do not prove a direct connection to the output-hours gap. Whether the productivity pace will persist, whether hiring will pick up, and how gains will affect pay remain uncertain.
Upcoming Data Will Test the Trend
The next updates to watch are releases from the BLS on productivity, hours, employment and wages, alongside revised BEA GDP estimates and further Census Bureau information on business AI use. Later observations will help show whether recent productivity growth persists or reflects a shorter-term movement. Revisions may also alter estimates for earlier quarters.
For now, the report’s evidence supports a measured conclusion: the U.S. economy has recently produced more output with relatively little increase in business-sector hours, while job gains and wage outcomes have varied across groups and industries. New data may clarify how long the pattern lasts. They will not, on their own, prove that AI caused it; that requires evidence connecting technology use to changes in production and employment.
Key Questions
How much did U.S. business output and hours change?
ThorstenMeyerAI.com reports that, using BLS indexes, nonfarm business output rose 10.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked rose 0.9%. The 10.0% figure is the report author’s calculation from the indexes.
Does this prove AI is replacing workers?
No. The figures show output and hours moving at different rates, but they do not establish that AI caused the gap or that firms are replacing workers with AI. The report says about one in four U.S. businesses reported using AI in an early-October Census Bureau survey, without providing evidence that links adoption directly to the productivity figures.
Was the economy growing in the third quarter of 2026?
Yes. The BEA’s October 29 advance estimate put real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. The estimate may be revised, and GDP growth is a broader measure than nonfarm business productivity.
Were jobs and wages rising along with output?
Outcomes differed by industry and worker group. The report cites 496,000 net payroll additions over the 12 months to September, with health care and social assistance adding 520,000 and information industries losing 120,000. It also reports that real private-sector wages fell 0.6% over the year to September. These figures do not show that productivity growth caused the employment or wage changes.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
